The Hail Mary

Paul Thurrott on the upcoming marketing efforts for Windows Phone:

Microsoft has one goal and one goal only: Convince consumers to purchase millions of Windows Phone handsets in the first half of 2012. Doing so will requires a new set of phones…as well as stepping up engagement with tech enthusiasts, increasing retail-worker recommendation rates through training ands sales incentives, and other means.

So in order to convince millions of consumers to buy a Windows Phone, all Microsoft and Nokia must do is build an entirely new set of phones, increase engagement with enthusiasts, and pay retail workers ($10 to $15 per handset) to recommend their phones.

That’s a lot to bite off in a very short period of time. The easiest part is tossing cash at retail workers, but that still require extensive training on new products. When in doubt, sales people sell what they know, and currently, Windows Phone is a big unknown.

And then comes the the “Hail Mary”:

According to the internal Microsoft documentation I’ve viewed, the total cost of this marketing tsunami is in the neighborhood of $200 million, not $100 million. And again, that’s just for the United States. And on AT&T at least, Nokia is outspending Microsoft 2-to-1.

That’s well over $300 million on marketing efforts in the United States alone. Wow.

This is what happens when two once dominant but proud companies believe they can buy their way into a market. And for Nokia, doesn’t their very existence depend on the success of Windows Phone? It sure seems that way.

Customers didn’t stand outside Apple stores waiting to get their hands on the iPhone 4S because the TV ads convinced them to. No, they were there because Apple created the best smartphone, and millions of people had to have it.

Do you know why iPhone owners (including myself) won’t shut up about their phones? Because they can’t imagine not having one and want to share that sentiment with everyone. The first Tivo I bought, I did the same thing. I stood in Best Buy and Circuit City selling the device to total strangers. It was (is) so much better than anything else. Remember the first time you turned on your new HDTV and you could actually see the puck fly across the ice or spiral on Manning’s ball? I’ll bet the next time you were at a friends house, and he fired up his crappy standard def set, you told him what he was missing.

Consumers are smart. They can sense when a product is on life support. When was the last time someone approached you and said, “Check out this killer app on my new Windows Phone?” It’s never happened to me and I live less than 40 minutes from the Microsoft campus in Redmond.

Those who have shown me their Windows Phone are almost sheepish about it. One friend got a free Windows Phone, told me how great it was, but had purchased two iPhone 4Ss the next time I saw him. And he’s a Microsoft employee!

I can’t go to church without half a dozen iPhone owners telling me about some cool app they found. It’s genuine excitement, not some salesperson slogging through a script hoping to score a $10 spiff for recommending a phone they themselves probably don’t use.

No amount of money can generate that person to person excitement and connection.

Windows Phone must stand on its own. When dealing with a market entrenched with iPhones and Android handsets, Windows Phone must be demonstrably better. Almost as good isn’t enough. As good isn’t enough. Microsoft and Nokia must create a device so good that people will stand in a line overnight to get their hands on one. I have a hard time believing either company can pull that off.

Although I believe Microsoft Phone is a decent effort, it’s bound to fail. Tossing $300 million at the problem appears to be a last ditch effort from two companies who used to be relevant in mobile.

I predict this “Hail Mary” lands far short of the target.

The Cheap and the Fast

Each day I speak with people looking for a new computer. They tend to fall into two camps:

Those searching for the cheapest
Those looking for the fastest (and usually most expensive)

Both groups eventually find what they’re after. But I’m left to wonder if either group is happy with their purchase.

For example, tell a group of coworkers you purchased a new car and wait for the stories to roll in. Someone has a friend who would have found it cheaper. Why didn’t you use Craigslist, eBay, Cheapcarsforsuckers.com? Man, I hope you checked Consumer Reports! If you didn’t see the invoice, you paid too much.

It’s a race to the bottom. No matter what you paid, someone paid less. Or bargained harder for or had a secret offer code.

But buying the fastest or most expensive isn’t much better. I speak with people who want the most expensive processor or video card. Surely the most expensive golf clubs, vacuum or iPhone case is the best, right?

These people are happy, but only until a newer model arrives. If you equate “best” with “most expensive” any positive feelings towards the product comes with an expiration date.

Today, I spoke with a woman who took an entirely different approach. She explained how she plans to use her computer before asking, “Can you help me select a model that fits my needs?”

How often do we search for the cheapest? Or the best reviewed? Or the one with the most Amazon comments?

Maybe we should be asking ourselves, “What do I need?” instead.

Turning A Loss Into A Gain

2011 came to a close for me squished between my kids while we watched the fireworks at the Space Needle on an air mattress that was slowly losing air. The safety tag warned against using the mattress as a floatation device, and I understand why.

It was a fitting end to a year that I’ll remember most for the amount of time I spent with my children. I don’t know when it hit me how lucky I am, but it may have been the morning my daughter left her lunchbox at home, and didn’t realize it until we were at the bus stop.

For a split second I thought about lecturing Anna. About how it’s not my job to make sure her homework is tucked inside her backpack. How maybe if she’d spend less time selecting an outfit, she’d have more time to make sure she had everything she needed, including her lunch box. Behind all that pseudo fatherly advice was fact that it was simply a personal inconvenience to the driver.

In the time it look me to turn the van around and head back home to retrieve the lunchbox, I realized how most fathers would love to be in my position. I get to see my kids run towards the van each morning in various stages of readiness. Backpacks a size too large are dragged across the driveway. Jackets seldom match the season . Some mornings I’m convinced Anna got herself dressed in a pitch black cave.

But none of that matters.

This year I got to see my children every morning. It’s a view into a slice of their day that, until last year, was not part of my day because my commute was over an hour each way. I stirred chocolate milk for them, buttered toast and hung around long to figure out which flavor of Pringles each of them prefer.

In the past I’ve told myself that I was providing for my family. That a long commute or travel requirements were just part of the job, but that I’d make it up down the road. I nearly began to believe the lie myself.

It took losing my job to realize I was losing touch with my children. I left before they were awake and often returned home well after dinner. My free time started after they were in bed.

And that’s what I’ll take from 2011. A loss turned into a gain for me and my children.

Having to go back home to retrieve a forgotten lunch isn’t such a bad thing either because it gives me a few more minutes to listen to Anna’s wacky jokes.

My Search For Rewarding Work

The switch happened shortly after graduating from college. Until then, jobs I held were centered on completing tasks. I cleaned pools, entered data into computers, and delivered janitorial supplies around the Salt Lake valley.

But at some point, if you’re good at getting things done, someone in management notices and you’re promoted to a position where you’re no longer directly involved in getting things done. I don’t recall anyone telling me that’s what earning a college degree was about but it was certainly implied.

My uncle is one of those guys you see when boarding a plane who’s tossing suitcases onto the cargo chute. As fun as it might be to zip around the tarmac playing tag with 747s, I didn’t like the idea of schlepping luggage in the sweltering summers or frigid winters of Salt Lake.

I told myself over and over that, I would skip right past the demanding labor of my uncle and head right into a job with an office, computer, and brass name plate.

As if going to college would magically activate a switch in my brain that would allow me to earn a living using it instead of my legs, hands, and back. Yet now, as my no-longer-21-year-old body is beginning to feel its share of aches and pains, I find myself drawn to challenging and unpredictable work.

My current job feels like work. But it’s challenging and frustrating and rewarding. Not every day, but most days, and that’s a change for the better. I’m learning and being pushed into uncomfortable situations I’ve not experienced in my career. I’m alert instead of checking ESPN during a recurring all-hands. Most of all, I actually care about our customers because they aren’t buried beneath a dozen layers or corporate insulation.

The corporate world is full of planning, off-sites, 1x1s, status reports, budgeting, and brainstorming sessions. I feel like that’s all I’ve done for the past fifteen years. When I worked for Microsoft, it wasn’t uncommon to spend 20 to 25 hours a week in meetings. When I’d arrive home and Kim asked me what I did that day, I had no answer. Not all meetings are a waste of time. Just most of them.

The notion that working with your mind instead of your hands is a more important contribution to society is incorrect. I’m starting to doubt my own education given how long it’s taken me to realize that.

At least now I return home from work each day I have an answer when Kim asks what I did.

Real Friends

I met a friend for dinner last week. He’s not someone I knew from childhood or went to school with. I don’t know much about his family, and I don’t believe I’ve met his parents.

We don’t chat on the phone or computer nor is he active on Facebook or Twitter.

Other than meeting up three or four times a year for dinner, we don’t see or talk much. If the Cowboys are making a late charge I’ll send him to text to see if he has any faith left in Tony Romo.

We always meet at the same Pho soup joint at Southcenter. I told Kim I’d be gone “about an hour”. But three and a half hours passed before either of us look at our phones. He picked up dinner. I believe I paid the last time we met, but I can’t remember because nobody keeps track.

It’s not easy to explain why I connect with some people and not others. I wouldn’t say a have many close friends. I have a group of good friends, but they come and go. Casual friends more away and are replaced by those I meet at work or church.

This week I stood in the cold next to my car and talked about everything and nothing with one of my close friends. Temperatures were near freezing, and my fingers and toes were numb. But none of that mattered. The nearly two hours we talked felt like twenty minutes.

No matter my circumstances I feel rich when close friends like these two are in my life. Their friendship and that connection mean far more than anything money can buy.

Moneyball

“How can you not be romantic about baseball?” – Billy Beane

Moneyball was the best movie I saw this year. I read the Michael Lewis book a few years ago and liked it, but didn’t think much of it. When I heard Brad Pitt was playing the role of A’s general manager, Billy Beane, I shrugged it off and didn’t plan to see the film.

But Ebert gave it a good review and I decided to see it. So glad I did because I really enjoyed the performances from Pitt and Jonah Hill who plays an understated statistic whiz kid who understand that the goal of teams should be to buy wins instead of players.

Basically, invest your money in players who get on base. It doesn’t matter how. A walk or hit by pitch is as good as a hit.

Not only are the performances good, but the music and cinematography are excellent. We’ve seen the ball sail over the fence for the winning home run dozens of times. You’ll find it in Moneyball as well but it’s done with such a deft touch that it feels authentic.

I highly recommend Moneyball even if you’re not into baseball. In fact, it’s as much about business and mathematics as it is about the game of baseball.

Listen Up

When I finished college, I felt like it was my responsibility as a degree carrying punk to share my opinions on everything from politics to why the Clash are better than U2.

I watched Jeopardy and read Time magazine. Man, I was informed!

I don’t know what changed. At some point I began speaking less and listening more. Not balanced by any means, but an improvement.

It’s something I still struggle with. As the new guy at work, I tend to keep my mouth shut at meetings and listen to others. I’ll chime in now and then, but not often. Nobody likes when the new guy shows up with a list of items to change.

I struggle the most around my own family which is odd. Then again, maybe it’s not. A few years back I made a comment that landed with a thud. I wish I could take it back because it’s hurt my relationship with my sisters. Living a couple of states away makes rebuilding the relationship a challenge.

At some point I assume I’ll figure it out.

And if not, there’s always my blog.

Doing Business In Person

With all the reports of Black Friday and Cyber Monday settings online sales records it’s easy to forgot what it’s like to do business in person.

Last week I had the chance to assist someone in selecting a new computer. She already had a good idea of what she wanted. I made a couple of suggestions that saved her a few bucks. Working for a company that’s entirely customer focused is something I haven’t done for a while.

We finished benchmarking and testing her system on Friday. I called to let her know it was ready for pickup. That evening, just before I went home for the weekend, I walked her through the basics of her new system.

That was the best part because I could see she was excited about what she’d purchased and could appreciate the workmanship that had gone into assembly of her system. That’s not something I’ve experienced when I purchased Kim’s computer from Dell because her case was never meant to be removed by someone who isn’t an electrical engineer.

I told her thank you and shook her hand before saying goodbye.

That evening I returned home to finish up my Christmas shopping at Amazon. But it wasn’t the same nor should I expect it to be.

Is meeting with customers only something the owner or senior management does at your company?

Face to face communication with customers can be time consuming and costly. There are many reasons why it won’t work for many businesses.

But when it does, it’s worth the effort.

Indirect TV

I’ve avoided upgrading to an HDTV for a number of reasons. For one, I’d have to give up my wonderful DirecTivo receiver for someone else’s craptastic DVR.

Once you’ve used Tivo’s elegant interface, the though of using another receiver made by Dish, DirecTV or Comcast is almost too much to stomach. It would be equivalent to using Apple’s OS X operating system for eight years until you’re told the only way to get on the internet is to move to a netbook running Windows 3.1.

But the idea of watching Mad Men, Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones in HD has begun to trump the idea of taking a major step back in usability. I tell myself that if I can setup a Season Pass for my favorite shows, I’ll be OK. Or is Season Pass only available on Tivo? I’ll Google for it.

Since I’ve been a DirectTV customer since 1997, I decided to call them first to see what they could do for me. I told the rep I needed to swap out my DirecTivo for an HD DVR and add another HD receiver upstairs on the small TV.

The process was fairly painless. The rep told me on three occasions that I was already receiving their best deal. Translation: don’t ask for any discounts.

She walked through my programming selections. I told her I did not want to upgrade to more premium channels nor did I want to change my programming package.

“But I can offer you Showtime at a discounted rate for six months.”

“No thank you. We only watch HBO.”

"Are you sure? I could add it now.”

“No, I’m happy with my current programming.”

“But…”

And so it went for the next few minutes. She wasn’t getting off the phone till I added Showtime. I have no need for Showtime and wasn’t budging. I can only imagine that Showtime is running a spiff and she’s making a run up the leaderboard. It was evident in her voice that she was unhappy I wasn’t willing to accept her offer.

But I’ve played this game before where a company makes it easy to add a service, but nearly impossible to quit. Welcome to the Hotel California where you can check out anytime you like but you can never leave.

I’m sure DirecTV has a metric based on extensive research that shows “for every person offered Showtime, you will close “X” number of sales”.

What that metric doesn’t calculate is how many customers you anger in the process.

The customer becomes merely a number to bombard with “special offers”. Some customers will hold firm. But many will accept the “free” programming with every intention to call back and cancel. Good luck with that.

The problem with this is that it leaves the customer feeling like a punching bag. Navigating the phone tree is tiresome enough without having to continually rebuff offers that have nothing to do with the reason I called. Why would any business want their customers to get off the phone feeling harangued?

What I find baffling is that DirecTV is regularly rated at the top of Consumer Reports based on their high customer service marks.

In the meantime, give me Don and Joan in HD for Christmas and I’ll forget it happened.

I Want My MTV

I’m about halfway through the book, “I Want My MTV: The Uncensored Story of the Music Video Revolution”. It’s been a slow read because I often have to stop and catch my breath from laughter.

I love reading about all the wheeling and dealing that took place between MTV and record executives. Like how MTV convinced the record companies to pay for the videos which gave the nascent network free content to build a business around. Can you imagine a new radio station convincing the artists and record companies to give them free access to their music catalogs? Unreal.

But the best stories include the original DJs and their interactions with the bands of the 80’s. I liked Martha Quinn. She was cute in an awkward way which made her even cuter. None of my friends will admit it, but we all had a crush on Martha.

I wouldn’t recommend this book to my mom, but if you grew up with MTV in the 80’s you’ll probably enjoy it. Here are a few of my favorite quotes so far:

“Rock n’ roll always sounds better in the car” – Bruce Springsteen

“Just get a stage, a crew, a bunch of cameras, a bunch a smoke and a crapload of doves” – Prince, preparing to direct the When Doves Cry video

“It was a whopping, steaming turd just about any way you look at it” – Mick Kleber referring to the Rock Me Tonight video by Billy Squier. Many consider this the worst video ever made.